Latest in Mortgage News, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Victor Anasimiv • June 24, 2020
Although the volume of news over the last month has been pretty tame in comparison to when COVID-19 initially hit, there has still been a lot going on. If you find yourself wondering about the current state of affairs as it relates to real estate, mortgage financing, and the recovery of our economy mid and post-pandemic, you’ve come to the right place!
Here is a quick recap, a look forward, and links to many good sources of information!
Questionable economic outlook.
Back in the third week of May, the head of the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) made some pretty gloomy predictions.
These Included a potential decrease in house prices of 18%, a jump in mortgage deferrals by 20% from 12% by September, and a debt-to-GDP ratio jump from 99% to 130% by Q3.
However, this particular economic outlook wasn’t widely accepted in the mortgage industry and was seen more as an absolute worst-case scenario. Despite this, CMHC went ahead and made changes to their underwriting guidelines
and qualifying criteria for insured mortgages.
CMHC changes policy for insured mortgages.
On June 4th, 2020, CMHC announced that they would be making changes to their underwriting qualification effective July 1st 2020.
Essentially, they have lowered the buying power of anyone looking for an insured mortgage by up to 10% by limiting the Gross/Total Debt Servicing (GDS/TDS) ratios to 35% and 42% respectively. They changed the credit score requirements to a minimum of 680 for at least one borrower. While they also removed non-traditional sources of down payment that increase indebtedness, (borrowed downpayment). A gifted downpayment from a family member is still acceptable.
Genworth and Canada Guaranty don’t plan on changing guidelines.
In response to CMHC’s changes, the other two mortgage insurers in Canada made announcements that they would not be changing their guidelines.
“Genworth Canada believes that its risk management framework, its dynamic underwriting policies and processes and its ongoing monitoring of conditions and market developments allow it to prudently adjudicate and manage its mortgage insurance exposure, including its exposure to this segment of borrowers with lower credit scores or higher debt service ratios,” said Stuart Levings, President and CEO.
“Canada Guaranty confirms that no changes to underwriting policy are contemplated as a result of recent industry announcements… Given implementation of the qualifying stress test and historic default patterns, Canada Guaranty does not anticipate borrower debt service ratios at time of origination to be a significant predictor of mortgage defaults.”
So although CMHC is taking a very pessimistic view towards our economic recovery and has made it harder to qualify for an insured mortgage going forward, Genworth and Canada Guaranty will be there to make sure more Canadians have access to insured mortgage products.
Economic Outlook from the Bank of Canada.
On June 22nd, Tiff Macklem, the new governor of the Bank of Canada, released his first public press release called Monetary Policy in the Context of COVID-19.
“Currently, we expect growth to resume in the third quarter. The economy will get an immediate boost as containment measures are lifted, people are called back to work, and households resume some of their normal activities. But it will be important not to assume that these growth rates will continue beyond the reopening phase. The pandemic is likely to inflict some lasting damage to demand and supply. The recovery will likely be prolonged and bumpy, with the potential for setbacks along the way.”
Conference Board of Canada.
In a sizeable release, the Conference Board of Canada shared their Canadian Outlook Summary: Summer 2020.
“With the worst of the recession likely over, the outlook for 2021 is brighter. The economy is forecast to rebound by 6.7 per cent in 2021 and 4.8 per cent in 2022. As the threat of the pandemic eases, how well the reopening of the economy and the withdrawal of government support is managed will be a crucial determinant of the economy’s trajectory over the next several years.”
Business as usual.
By all accounts, it’s business as usual amid this global pandemic. Although COVID-19 has impacted the number of houses being bought and sold, prices haven’t dropped. CMHC has made it harder to qualify for an insured mortgage through them, but you have two other insurers providing options, so it’s not a big deal.
If you’re looking to make a move or need to discuss mortgage financing, please don’t hesitate to contact me anytime. I would love to work with you!
As patios wind down and pumpkin spice ramps up, fall is the perfect reset for your home—and your homeowner game plan. These quick wins boost comfort, curb appeal, and efficiency now, and set you up for a low-stress winter (and a strong spring market). 1) Safety & “silent leak” checks (Weekend-ready) Clean gutters & downspouts. Add leaf guards where trees overhang. Roof scan. Look for lifted shingles, cracked flashings, or moss. Seal the shell. Re-caulk window/door trim; replace weatherstripping. Test alarms. New batteries for smoke/CO detectors; add one near bedrooms. Why it matters: Prevent water intrusion and heat loss before storms roll in. 2) Heat smarter, not harder Furnace/boiler tune-up and filter change. Smart thermostat with schedules and geofencing. Draft hunt. Foam gaskets behind outlets, door sweeps on exterior doors. ROI tip: Efficiency upgrades lower monthly bills and can improve lender ratios if you’re eyeing a refinance later. 3) Fall-proof your yard (so spring you says “thanks”) Aerate + overseed + fall fertilize for thicker turf next year. Trim trees/shrubs away from siding and power lines. Mulch perennials and plant spring bulbs now. Shut off/bleed exterior taps and store hoses to avoid burst pipes. 4) Extend outdoor season (cozy edition) Portable fire pit or propane heater + layered blankets. Path/step lighting for darker evenings (solar or low-voltage). Weather-resistant storage for cushions/tools to preserve value. Neighborhood curb appeal: Warm lighting and tidy beds make a big first impression if you list in shoulder season. 5) Water management = winter peace of mind Re-grade low spots and add downspout extensions (2–3+ metres). Check sump pump (and backup). Look for efflorescence or damp corners in the basement. 6) Mini-renos that punch above their weight Entry/mudroom upgrade: hooks, bench, boot trays, closed storage. Laundry room tune-up: counter over machines, sorting bins, task lighting. Kitchen refresh: new hardware, tap, and under-cabinet lighting in one afternoon. Budget guide: Many of these land under a micro-reno budget—perfect for a modest line of credit. 7) Indoor air quality tune-up Deep clean vents and dryers (including the rigid duct). Add door mats (exterior + interior) to catch grit/salt. Houseplants or HEPA purifier for closed-window months. Fast Timeline (pin this to the fridge) Late August–September Gutters/downspouts, roof/caulking, HVAC service, lawn care, plant bulbs, exterior tap shut-off plan, path lighting. October Weatherstripping/sweeps, fire pit setup, organize mudroom/garage, test alarms, sump check, downspout extensions, dryer vent cleaning. Financing smarter: make your mortgage work for your home Annual mortgage check-in. As rates, income, and goals evolve, a quick review can free up cash flow or open options for a small fall project budget. HELOC vs. top-up refinance. For bite-size projects, a HELOC can be flexible. For bigger renos you plan to pay down, a top-up refi might make more sense. Bundle & prioritize. Knock out the high-impact, low-cost items first (air sealing, safety, water management) before the cosmetic upgrades. Not sure which route fits your fall plans? We’ll run the numbers and map the best financing path for your specific budget and goals. Quick Checklist (copy/paste) ☐ Clean gutters/downspouts; add guards ☐ Roof & flashing visual check ☐ Re-caulk, weatherstrip, add door sweeps ☐ HVAC service + new filter ☐ Aerate/overseed/fertilize; trim trees; plant bulbs ☐ Path & entry lighting ☐ Drain/bleed outdoor taps; store hoses ☐ Downspout extensions; sump test ☐ Dryer vent cleaning ☐ Mudroom/garage organization ☐ Schedule mortgage review / discuss HELOC vs refi Ready to make fall your low-stress season? Book a quick fall mortgage check-up—15 minutes to see if a small credit line or a tweak to your current mortgage could cover your priority projects without straining cash flow.
There is no doubt about it, buying a home can be an emotional experience. Especially in a competitive housing market where you feel compelled to bid over the asking price to have a shot at getting into the market. Buying a home is a game of balancing needs and wants while being honest with yourself about those very needs and wants. It’s hard to get it right, figuring out what’s negotiable and what isn’t, what you can live with and what you can’t live without. Finding that balance between what makes sense in your head and what feels right in your heart is challenging. And the further you are in the process, the more desperate you may feel. One of the biggest mistakes you can make when shopping for a property is to fall in love with something you can’t afford. Doing this almost certainly guarantees that nothing else will compare, and you will inevitably find yourself “settling” for something that is actually quite nice. Something that would have been perfect had you not already fallen in love with something out of your price range. So before you ever look at a property, you should know exactly what you can qualify for so that you can shop within a set price range and you won’t be disappointed. Protect yourself with a mortgage pre-approval. A pre-approval does a few things It will outline your buying power. You will be able to shop with confidence, knowing exactly how much you can spend. It will uncover any issues that might arise in qualifying for a mortgage, for example, mistakes on your credit bureau. It will outline the necessary supporting documentation required to get a mortgage so you can be prepared. It will secure a rate for 30 to 120 days, depending on your mortgage product. It will save your heart from the pain of falling in love with something you can’t afford. Obviously, there is nothing wrong with looking at all types of property and getting a good handle on the market; however, a pre-approval will protect you from believing you can qualify for more than you can actually afford. Get a pre-approval before you start shopping; your heart will thank you. If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!
Wondering If Now’s the Right Time to Buy a Home? Start With These Questions Instead. Whether you're looking to buy your first home, move into something bigger, downsize, or find that perfect place to retire, it’s normal to feel unsure—especially with all the noise in the news about the economy and the housing market. The truth is, even in the most stable times, predicting the “perfect” time to buy a home is incredibly hard. The market will always have its ups and downs, and the headlines will never give you the full story. So instead of trying to time the market, here’s a different approach: Focus on your personal readiness—because that’s what truly matters. Here are some key questions to reflect on that can help bring clarity: Would owning a home right now put me in a stronger financial position in the long run? Can I comfortably afford a mortgage while maintaining the lifestyle I want? Is my job or income stable enough to support a new home? Do I have enough saved for a down payment, closing costs, and a little buffer? How long do I plan to stay in the property? If I had to sell earlier than planned, would I be financially okay? Will buying a home now support my long-term goals? Am I ready because I want to buy, or because I feel pressure to act quickly? Am I hesitating because of market fears, or do I have legitimate concerns? These are personal questions, not market ones—and that’s the point. The economy might change tomorrow, but your answers today can guide you toward a decision that actually fits your life. Here’s How I Can Help Buying a home doesn’t have to be stressful when you have a plan and someone to guide you through it. If you want to explore your options, talk through your goals, or just get a better sense of what’s possible, I’m here to help. The best place to start? A mortgage pre-approval . It’s free, it doesn’t lock you into anything, and it gives you a clear picture of what you can afford—so you can move forward with confidence, whether that means buying now or waiting. You don’t have to figure this out alone. If you’re curious, let’s talk. Together, we can map out a homebuying plan that works for you.
