Fixed-Rate or Variable-Rate Mortgage?

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2½%.  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario September 17, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%. After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. China’s economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canada’s exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar. Canada’s GDP declined by about 1½% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending. Employment has declined in the past two months since the Bank’s July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease. CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2½%. The federal government’s recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward. With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties. Governing Council will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships; how much this spills over into business investment, employment, and household spending; how the cost effects of trade disruptions and reconfigured supply chains are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 29, 2025. The Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report will be released at the same time.

You’d think an online calculator is a pretty straightforward device, one that you should be able to place your confidence in, and for the most part, they are. Calculators calculate numbers. The numbers are reliable, but how you interpret those numbers, not so much, especially if the goal is mortgage qualification. If you rely on the numbers from a “What can I afford” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator without talking to an independent mortgage professional, you’re going to be misinformed. Don’t be fooled. Even though an online mortgage calculator can help you calculate mortgage payments or help you assess how additional payments would impact your amortization, they’ll never be able to give you an exact picture of what you can afford and how a lender will consider your mortgage application. While mortgage calculators are objective, mortgage lending isn’t. It’s 100% subjective. Lenders consider your financial situation, employment, credit history, assets, liabilities, the property you are looking to purchase. Then, they will compare that with whatever internal risk profile they are currently using to assess mortgage lending. Simply put, they don’t just look at the numbers. An online calculator is a great tool to help you run different financial scenarios and help assess your comfort level with different payment schedules and mortgage amounts. However, if you rely on an online calculator for mortgage qualification purposes, you’ll be disappointed. The first step in the mortgage qualification process is a preapproval. A preapproval will examine all the variables on your application, assess your financial situation, and provide you with a framework to buy a property based on your unique circumstance. Securing a preapproval comes at no cost to you and without any obligation to buy. It’ll simply allow you the freedom to move ahead with confidence, knowing exactly where you stand. Something a calculator is unable to do. Please connect anytime if you’d like to talk more about your financial situation and get a preapproval started. It would be a pleasure to work with you.